Advertising disclosure · this page contains affiliate links · methodology18+ · not financial advice
PredictHub
Top platforms

Which prediction markets are actually regulated

“Regulated” is the most-abused word in this category. Platforms describe themselves as CFTC-regulated when the designation belongs to a different company, when it belongs to an exchange they merely route orders to, or when no register we can find lists them at all. So this page ranks on one question only: can a reader open a regulator’s own register and find the platform on it?

Every entry below is ordered by its regulation rating, and every rating names the document it came from. Nothing here rests on a company’s description of itself where a register could have confirmed it instead. This is not legal advice, and a regulatory position that was true this month has repeatedly stopped being true the next — check the date on each claim.

Updated

Ranked platforms

  1. Kalshi

    8.0/10preliminary

    The only entry on the register in its own name

    The CFTC’s Designated Contract Market register lists “Kalshi — Designated — 11/03/2020”. That is the venue itself, not a subsidiary and not a partner exchange, and it is the oldest designation of the ten platforms we track. Kalshi’s onboarding corroborates it: identity verification is “mandated … due to our regulatory obligations under United States (US) law”, and it warns that the CFTC “may require additional documents such as proof of address, employment information, or source of funds”. Held short of a perfect rating because we have not verified its state-level restrictions from a primary source and have audited neither its incident history nor its fund segregation.

    RegulatedAvailability unverified
    Visit site →Read review

  2. Polymarket

    6.9/10preliminary

    A real designation, held one entity away

    The register does contain a Polymarket entry — “QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US — Designated — 07/09/2025” — but it belongs to that US entity, not to the offshore order book most readers reach, which holds no licence we can name and whose operating company’s jurisdiction of incorporation we could not establish at all. Polymarket’s own documentation lists the United States among jurisdictions where users “may close their existing positions but cannot open new ones”. A verifiable designation sitting next to the book you would actually trade on is worth something, and it is not the same as the book being designated.

    CryptoAvailability unverified
    Visit site →Read review

  3. Manifold Markets

    3.7/10preliminary

    Unlicensed, and openly so

    No licence, no regulator, and Manifold’s own FAQ explains why one is not needed: its currency “cannot be converted to cash”. That is an unusually easy claim to verify and the reason this sits above the unlicensed real-money venues we have looked at — there is no cash trading balance for a customer to lose. It is still a venue with no supervisor to appeal to and no fund segregation, and its currency is sold for real money even though it cannot be sold back. Its separate Prize Drawing pays USDC and is void in eight US jurisdictions.

    Play moneyAvailability unverified
    Visit site →Read review

Every platform reviewed

1. Kalshi

CFTC-regulated event contract exchange

8.0Prelim

The CFTC’s Designated Contract Market register lists “Kalshi — Designated — 11/03/2020”. That is the venue itself, not a subsidiary and not a partner exchange, and it is the oldest designation of the ten platforms we track. Kalshi’s onboarding corroborates it: identity verification is “mandated … due to our regulatory obligations under United States (US) law”, and it warns that the CFTC “may require additional documents such as proof of address, employment information, or source of funds”. Held short of a perfect rating because we have not verified its state-level restrictions from a primary source and have audited neither its incident history nor its fund segregation.

Strengths

  • CFTC-designated contract market
  • Fiat deposits and withdrawals, no wallet needed
  • Default maker fee is zero, with charged series exceptions
  • Mobile apps on both platforms

Watch out

  • Country restrictions and account approval apply to international users
  • Narrower market selection than on-chain venues
  • KYC required before you can trade
  • Trading fees vary by contract price and series
$10
Min deposit
7
Markets
2021
Since
Go to Kalshi →Full review

2. Polymarket

Largest on-chain prediction market by volume

6.9Prelim

The register does contain a Polymarket entry — “QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US — Designated — 07/09/2025” — but it belongs to that US entity, not to the offshore order book most readers reach, which holds no licence we can name and whose operating company’s jurisdiction of incorporation we could not establish at all. Polymarket’s own documentation lists the United States among jurisdictions where users “may close their existing positions but cannot open new ones”. A verifiable designation sitting next to the book you would actually trade on is worth something, and it is not the same as the book being designated.

Strengths

  • Deepest liquidity in the category on major markets
  • Fastest listing of new events
  • No maker trading fees under the published schedule
  • Public API with full order book access

Watch out

  • Requires a wallet and USDC — no fiat rails
  • International product has country restrictions; Polymarket US is separate
  • Thin depth on long-tail markets
  • Network fees apply to deposits and withdrawals
$2
Min deposit
7
Markets
2020
Since
Go to Polymarket →Full review

3. Manifold Markets

Play-money forecasting community

3.7Prelim

No licence, no regulator, and Manifold’s own FAQ explains why one is not needed: its currency “cannot be converted to cash”. That is an unusually easy claim to verify and the reason this sits above the unlicensed real-money venues we have looked at — there is no cash trading balance for a customer to lose. It is still a venue with no supervisor to appeal to and no fund segregation, and its currency is sold for real money even though it cannot be sold back. Its separate Prize Drawing pays USDC and is void in eight US jurisdictions.

Strengths

  • No money at risk — play currency only
  • Anyone can create a market
  • Open API and public leaderboard
  • No KYC and no deposit needed

Watch out

  • Prices are not backed by capital, so they forecast less reliably
  • Market quality varies widely
  • No cash withdrawal
  • No mobile apps
$0
Min deposit
4
Markets
2021
Since
Go to Manifold Markets →Full review

Jump to

How to choose

Three things get conflated and are worth separating. A designated contract market is the exchange itself, named on the CFTC’s register with a status and a date. A futures commission merchant is a broker that routes your order to one of those exchanges — a real registration, but a different one, and it means the venue holding your position is somebody else. And staff no-action relief is neither: it is a letter saying the regulator does not currently intend to act, which is withdrawable and is not a licence.

The test we apply is whether the claim survives being looked up. A platform that names its registered entity, and whose entity appears on the register with a date, scores well. A platform whose regulatory claim exists only in its own marketing copy scores badly even when the claim is probably true — because a reader cannot check it, and because in this category the gap between “probably true” and “verified” is where people lose money.

Frequently asked questions

Does “CFTC-regulated” on a platform’s homepage mean it is on the register?
Not necessarily, and the difference matters. The phrase is sometimes accurate, sometimes describes a partner exchange the platform routes orders to, and sometimes describes an affiliated company rather than the venue you are trading on. Of the ten platforms we track, one uses wording like this while we could not locate its named entity anywhere on the CFTC’s Designated Contract Market register. Look up the specific legal entity name, not the brand.
Is a broker registration as good as an exchange designation?
It is a real registration protecting a different thing. A futures commission merchant is regulated as your broker, and your contract is listed and cleared by whichever exchange it routes to — so you are relying on two entities rather than one, and the exchange is the one holding the market. Several platforms in this category are brokers in front of somebody else’s exchange, which their own disclosures usually say plainly if you read them.
Why is this ranking shorter than your other pages?
Because only three platforms are published so far. We have researched ten and hold detailed regulatory records on all of them, but seven have not been reviewed by an editor and stay unpublished until they are — listing them here would send you to pages that do not exist. We would rather show three rankings we can defend than pad the list.