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Which prediction markets are actually regulated

“Regulated” is the most-abused word in this category. Platforms describe themselves as CFTC-regulated when the designation belongs to a different company, when it belongs to an exchange they merely route orders to, or when no register we can find lists them at all. So this page ranks on one question only: can a reader open a regulator’s own register and find the platform on it?

Every entry below is ordered by its regulation rating, and every rating names the document it came from. Nothing here rests on a company’s description of itself where a register could have confirmed it instead. This is not legal advice, and a regulatory position that was true this month has repeatedly stopped being true the next — check the date on each claim.

Updated

Ranked platforms

  1. Kalshi

    7.7/10preliminary

    The only entry on the register in its own name

    The CFTC’s Designated Contract Market register lists “Kalshi — Designated — 11/03/2020”. That is the venue itself, not a subsidiary and not a partner exchange, and it is the oldest designation of the ten platforms we track. Kalshi’s onboarding corroborates it: identity verification is “mandated … due to our regulatory obligations under United States (US) law”, and it warns that the CFTC “may require additional documents such as proof of address, employment information, or source of funds”. Held short of a perfect rating because we have not verified its state-level restrictions from a primary source and have audited neither its incident history nor its fund segregation.

    Regulated✅ Available

    KalshiEX is a CFTC-designated contract market and its Member Agreement names no US state as restricted. State court orders block some contract categories in Nevada, Washington and Michigan; elsewhere its contracts are available. Kalshi is in litigation with about 20 states, so this can change quickly.

    Visit site →Read review

  2. OG

    7.1/10preliminary
    Regulated✅ Available

    Help centre: “currently available in all U.S. states”, though some event contracts may be unavailable in some states (not named). App Store: “Available in all 50 US states”. New York has separate funding and portfolio articles.

    Read review

  3. Novig

    6.4/10preliminary
    Regulated✅ Available

    “Novig is available nationwide, except in Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan.” Eligibility is based on physical location at the time of trading, and users must be 21 or older.

    Read review

  4. FanDuel Predicts

    6.2/10preliminary
    Broker✅ Available

    FanDuel Predicts is available in all 50 states and DC. Users must be 18+ and verify their identity. It is not available on or near tribal land.

    Visit site →Read review

  5. Interactive Brokers ForecastTrader

    5.9/10preliminary
    Broker✅ Available

    Clients of Interactive Brokers LLC aged 21+ are eligible for event/forecast contracts; ForecastEx contracts on US election results are limited to eligible US residents.

    Visit site →Read review

  6. Crypto.com Prediction Markets

    5.8/10preliminary
    Regulated✅ Available

    Prediction Trading (and Sports Event Trading) is a CFTC-regulated feature of the Crypto.com App, offered through Crypto.com | Derivatives North America. The help centre says it is available in the US only.

    Visit site →Read review

  7. PredictIt

    3.9/10preliminary
    Regulated✅ Available

    The Terms and Conditions limit participation to people aged 18 or older who are U.S. Persons. They name no US state as excluded. PredictIt runs under CFTC no-action relief.

    Visit site →Read review

  8. Polymarket US

    7.3/10preliminary
    Regulated⚠️ Restrictions

    QCX LLC publishes no list of eligible or excluded states. A Nevada court granted a preliminary injunction against QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US on 29 May 2026 (Nevada Gaming Control Board). Missouri's Attorney General has sent a cease-and-desist over sports contracts, and New York has announced a lawsuit; neither state is marked closed because the operator has not said it geoblocks them.

    Read review

  9. ProphetX

    6.0/10preliminary
    Regulated⚠️ Restrictions

    ProphetX says it is “available nationwide” but publishes no excluded-state list; its help centre says access “is restricted from certain locations and IP addresses”. Connecticut reportedly ordered it to stop offering sports contracts to residents (September 2026); the order could not be read on the regulator’s site.

    Read review

  10. Underdog Predictions

    5.3/10preliminary
    Regulated⚠️ Restrictions

    Only in states where Underdog Predict operates: "Must be 18+ and present in a state where Underdog Predict operates". The operator's state list (help centre) could not be read, so other states are unconfirmed.

    Read review

  11. ADI PredictStreet

    6.3/10preliminary
    RegulatedAvailability unverified
    Read review

Every platform reviewed

1. Kalshi

CFTC-regulated event contract exchange

7.7Prelim

The CFTC’s Designated Contract Market register lists “Kalshi — Designated — 11/03/2020”. That is the venue itself, not a subsidiary and not a partner exchange, and it is the oldest designation of the ten platforms we track. Kalshi’s onboarding corroborates it: identity verification is “mandated … due to our regulatory obligations under United States (US) law”, and it warns that the CFTC “may require additional documents such as proof of address, employment information, or source of funds”. Held short of a perfect rating because we have not verified its state-level restrictions from a primary source and have audited neither its incident history nor its fund segregation.

Strengths

  • CFTC-designated contract market
  • Fiat deposits and withdrawals, no wallet needed
  • Default maker fee is zero, with charged series exceptions
  • Mobile apps on both platforms

Watch out

  • Country restrictions and account approval apply to international users
  • Narrower market selection than on-chain venues
  • KYC required before you can trade
  • Trading fees vary by contract price and series
$10
Min deposit
Taker 0.07·P·(1−P) — 1.75¢ at 50¢
Fees
7
Markets
2021
Since
Go to Kalshi →Full review

2. OG

Crypto.com’s standalone prediction-market app, listed on the NADEX/CDNA exchange

7.1Prelim

$1
Min deposit
Taker 7%×P(1−P), maker 1.75%×P(1−P) /contract
Fees
6
Markets
2026
Since
AvailableFull review

3. Novig

CFTC-designated peer-to-peer sports prediction market (Ludlow)

6.4Prelim

0% maker · taker fee on live and futures
Fees
1
Markets
2024
Since
AvailableFull review

4. FanDuel Predicts

FanDuel event contracts listed by CME Group and Crypto.com

6.2Prelim

Strengths

  • Contracts are listed and settled by CME, an established derivatives exchange, under a published rulebook chapter
  • Per-product contingencies are concrete and state what happens to an open position
  • The arbitration agreement expressly preserves CFTC reparations under Section 14
  • Exchange documents are public through CFTC filings and readable without an account

Watch out

  • For every sports, entertainment and awards contract, CME’s certified table gives the settlement source as “Fanduel” — the firm distributing the contract
  • No document describes how that data is produced or what happens if it is wrong
  • FanDuel’s public Predicts pages never say who determines outcomes, never cite the governing chapter and never mention the source
  • A catch-all lets the exchange set a settlement price in “sole discretion”
  • One sports contingency changed from cancelling positions to liquidating them at fair value while keeping the same label
  • No determination log is required or published anywhere
2¢ per $1 of potential payout; same to cash out
Fees
4
Markets
2025
Since
Go to FanDuel Predicts →Full review

5. Interactive Brokers ForecastTrader

Forecast contracts listed on ForecastEx, a CFTC-designated contract market

5.9Prelim

Strengths

  • A published specification for every contract — we checked roughly 11,470 live instruments and found none missing
  • The only venue we cover with a real, dated, public record of contested settlements: 439 notices including eight data overrides
  • A separate disciplinary log, which includes a filing against Interactive Brokers itself
  • Interest paid on open position value, which no other venue here offers
  • Contract terms settle the revision question explicitly rather than leaving it to be argued

Watch out

  • The exchange is a wholly owned subsidiary of the broker’s parent, so the broker owns the venue that decides
  • Determinations are “final and not subject to review”
  • The exchange’s own committee decides whether a dispute may go to arbitration, and that decision is final too
  • Binary contracts have been settled non-binary at 50/50, which the customer-facing FAQ does not prepare anyone for
  • Rule 415 assigns a data-error decision to a body the rulebook never defines
  • Economic and political contracts only — not a sports venue
3
Markets
Go to Interactive Brokers ForecastTrader →Full review

6. Crypto.com Prediction Markets

USD-settled event contracts in the Crypto.com app, listed by CDNA

5.8Prelim

Strengths

  • Contract specifications are filed with the CFTC, so they need no account to read and cannot be quietly edited
  • The elections contract names fourteen source agencies individually rather than gesturing at “official sources”
  • The delay contingency is written out: settlement waits until the source releases the outcome
  • Sits inside an app many US readers already have, with no separate account to open

Watch out

  • We could not locate CDNA on the CFTC’s own Designated Contract Market register, so no licence is claimed on this page
  • The CDNA rulebook, which the filings defer to for jurisdiction and enforcement, could not be retrieved
  • The fourteen source agencies apply “as determined by the Exchange”, so the authoritative outlet is chosen after the fact
  • No public record of past determinations was found
  • Available in the United States only
$0.01–$0.0175/contract taker · 0% maker
Fees
5
Markets
Go to Crypto.com Prediction Markets →Full review

7. PredictIt

Political event contracts run under CFTC no-action relief

3.9Prelim

Strengths

  • Every market’s settlement rules are readable through a public API with no account — better disclosure than several regulated venues
  • The longest continuous price history in US political prediction markets
  • Settlement is targeted at under 48 hours, and the venue says so rather than leaving it open
  • Political questions listed here that designated exchanges do not offer

Watch out

  • No regulator at all — its own terms say it is not regulated by the CFTC “or any other regulatory authority”
  • The operator writes the rules and judges the outcomes, and its decision is stated to be “final”
  • Accepting the terms waives your right to seek other remedies, with disputes sent to AAA arbitration
  • The terms permit cancelling an account “for any reason”, expressly including because you began a dispute
  • A per-participant cap tied to the federal contribution limit, so position size is constrained by rule
  • The CFTC no-action letters say nothing about determination or recourse, despite being cited as if they did
10% of profit · 5% on withdrawals
Fees
2
Markets
Go to PredictIt →Full review

8. Polymarket US

CFTC-regulated US event-contract exchange run by QCX LLC, USD only

7.3Prelim

Taker ≤$1.74 per 100 at 50¢ · maker rebate
Fees
7
Markets
RestrictedFull review

9. ProphetX

CFTC-designated sports-first exchange, peer-to-peer order book

6.0Prelim

$10
Min deposit
2% of net gains per market
Fees
2
Markets
2026
Since
RestrictedFull review

10. Underdog Predictions

Underdog's own CFTC exchange (UDX) plus Kalshi access, inside the Underdog app

5.3Prelim

UDX taker max $1.75/100 at 50¢; maker $0.44
Fees
1
Markets
2025
Since
RestrictedFull review

11. ADI PredictStreet

Gibraltar-licensed YES/NO prediction exchange settled on ADI Chain

6.3Prelim

Per-trade commission (rate shown per market)
Fees
6
Markets
2026
Since
Availability unverifiedFull review

Jump to

How to choose

Three things get conflated and are worth separating. A designated contract market is the exchange itself, named on the CFTC’s register with a status and a date. A futures commission merchant is a broker that routes your order to one of those exchanges — a real registration, but a different one, and it means the venue holding your position is somebody else. And staff no-action relief is neither: it is a letter saying the regulator does not currently intend to act, which is withdrawable and is not a licence.

The test we apply is whether the claim survives being looked up. A platform that names its registered entity, and whose entity appears on the register with a date, scores well. A platform whose regulatory claim exists only in its own marketing copy scores badly even when the claim is probably true — because a reader cannot check it, and because in this category the gap between “probably true” and “verified” is where people lose money.

Our lessons on what CFTC designation means and what the CFTC is show how to read a register entry yourself, with the CFTC’s own pages as sources.

Frequently asked questions

Does “CFTC-regulated” on a platform’s homepage mean it is on the register?

Not necessarily, and the difference matters. The phrase is sometimes accurate, sometimes describes a partner exchange the platform routes orders to, and sometimes describes an affiliated company rather than the venue you are trading on. Of the ten platforms we track, one uses wording like this while we could not locate its named entity anywhere on the CFTC’s Designated Contract Market register. Look up the specific legal entity name, not the brand.

Is a broker registration as good as an exchange designation?

It is a real registration protecting a different thing. A futures commission merchant is regulated as your broker, and your contract is listed and cleared by whichever exchange it routes to — so you are relying on two entities rather than one, and the exchange is the one holding the market.

Several platforms in this category are brokers in front of somebody else’s exchange, which their own disclosures usually say plainly if you read them.

Why is this ranking shorter than your other pages?

Because it admits only platforms regulated in the United States: CFTC-designated exchanges and the regulated brokers that route to them. Crypto, custodial and play-money platforms are left out by definition, however they score elsewhere — a list padded with them would contradict its own title.