Academy

Why an event contract is not a derivative on an asset, and what that changes about the price.

Who takes the other side, where the margin sits, and why the two prices mean different things.

Why a wide spread makes the midpoint meaningless, and why depth matters more than the headline price.

How an on-chain market learns what happened, and what a dispute does to the price.

The resolution criteria are the contract. Everything else is commentary.

Where the extra cents come from, how to divide them out, and why raw prices cannot be compared across venues.

Three payoff shapes, three different things a price is telling you.

Turning cents into probability, and what the spread tells you before you trade.

A market where you trade contracts that pay out if an event happens — so the price becomes a probability.

The questions that determine treatment, why none of them has a settled answer, and what to keep records of. Not tax advice.

Why a gap between a mana price and a dollar price is not an opportunity, and what a play-money price is still good for.

What happens when a contract ends, and why selling early is a different transaction.

The arithmetic of a position: contracts bought, money committed, and the win rate the price implies.

Spread plus fee plus the cost of moving money — and why a small edge does not survive all three.

Two ways a price gets made, and what each one hides about the cost of trading.

Seven ways to lose money while being right, most of them arithmetic rather than judgement.

News, time, the cost of money, uninformative flow and resolution risk — in roughly that order of how often they are misread.

How to separate federal exchange registration from your own eligibility to trade a particular contract.

What a designated contract market is, what registration does and does not settle, and how to check a claim. Not legal advice.