Tools
Prediction market arbitrage calculator
When two platforms price the same event differently, buying YES on one and NO on the other can lock in a profit whichever way it resolves. Enter both prices and fees to see whether the gap survives costs, and what it earns on your budget.
Arbitrage calculator
- Cost per YES + NO pair
- $0.97
- Locked-in profit
- $30.90 on 1030 pairs (3.09%)
- Capital needed
- $999.10
The formula
profit per pair = $1 − (YES price + NO price + fees)
How the arbitrage works
One YES contract and one NO contract on the same outcome together pay exactly $1, whatever happens. If you can buy the pair for less than $1 across two platforms, the difference is locked in — provided both platforms settle the event the same way.
Worked example: YES at 45¢ on platform A, NO at 50¢ on platform B, 1¢ fee on each. A pair costs 97¢ and returns $1, a 3¢ profit or 3.1% on the capital — about $29 on a $950 budget.
The risk the calculator cannot see
The profit is only locked in if the two contracts are really the same bet. Platforms word their rules differently — resolution source, deadline, what happens if the event is cancelled — and a difference in wording can make both sides lose. Read both contracts’ rules before trading; our guide to comparing contract rules shows what to check.
Capital is also tied up until settlement, often for months, and withdrawal fees or network costs on one side can cancel a small gap. Enter every fee you will actually pay.
Frequently asked questions
- Is prediction market arbitrage risk-free?
- Only if both contracts settle identically. Differences in resolution rules, sources or deadlines between platforms can make both legs lose, so the rules matter more than the prices.
- How do I know if there is an arbitrage?
- Add the YES price on one platform, the NO price on the other and all fees. If the total is below $1 per pair, the difference is the profit per pair at settlement.
Not financial advice. These calculators do arithmetic on the numbers you enter; they do not know a platform’s current prices or whether it is open to you. Check both in the platform reviews.