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Longer pieces: how accurate these markets actually are, what the data says, and where the incentives point.
Latest articles
Best Markets for Inflation and What They Really PriceCompare the best markets for inflation by contract design, settlement source, liquidity, access, and cost before treating a market price as a forecast.
How to Calculate Contract Payoff Before You TradeLearn how to calculate contract payoff on prediction markets, including settlement value, trade price, fees, exits, and disputed outcomes before you trade.
How to Spot Hidden Trading Costs Before You TradeLearn to spot hidden trading costs in prediction markets, from spreads and slippage to settlement, funding, and withdrawal charges before placing trades.
Prediction Market Regulation and Your AccessPrediction market regulation shapes where Americans can trade, which contracts they can access, and how platforms handle custody, disputes, and payouts.
Prediction Contract Trading Guide for Real MarketsThis prediction contract trading guide explains pricing, rules, fees, liquidity, settlement, and access before you risk real money on an event contract.
Market Making on Prediction Markets ExplainedMarket making on prediction markets explained: spreads, inventory risk, fees, settlement rules, and why displayed liquidity can mislead traders at times.
How to Deposit on Kalshi and Fund Your AccountLearn how to deposit on Kalshi, verify your account, choose an available funding method, manage transfer timing, and avoid preventable funding mistakes.
News Trading on Prediction Markets: What Moves First?News trading on prediction markets turns headlines into prices. Learn the mechanics, risks, rulebook traps, and execution checks that traders should check.
How to Hedge With Prediction Markets SafelyLearn how to hedge with prediction markets, size event contracts, read settlement rules, and assess liquidity, access, fees, and basis risk in trading.
Prediction Markets: Prices, Rules, and RiskPrediction markets turn uncertain events into tradable contracts. Learn how pricing, payouts, regulation, liquidity, and fees shape real risk for traders.
How to Trade Sports Event Contracts Without GuessworkLearn how to trade sports event contracts: read rules, price probability, manage orders and risk, and check whether real-money access is legal for you.
Event Contracts: What You Are Actually TradingEvent contracts turn a forecast into a defined financial position. Learn how pricing, settlement, access, fees, and rules shape the real trade.
Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting: Which Is Cheaper?Prediction markets vs sports betting: which is cheaper? Compare vig, spreads, trading fees, deposits, withdrawals, and execution risk before you trade.
Play Money Prediction Markets: Useful or Just Games?Play money prediction markets can train forecasting judgment, but virtual incentives distort prices. Learn when they help and when they do not in practice.
How Self Custody Prediction Markets WorkSelf custody prediction markets change who controls collateral, settlement, and access. Learn the trade-offs in wallets, liquidity, fees, rules, and risk with real money.
Common Mistakes New Prediction Market Traders MakeCommon mistakes new prediction market traders make include confusing price with certainty, ignoring rules and costs, and trading markets they cannot exit.
Prediction Market Liquidity and Real Trading CostsPrediction market liquidity determines spreads, fills, and exit risk. Learn how to assess depth, volume, incentives, and venue structure before trading.
Prediction Market Withdrawal Methods ExplainedCompare prediction market withdrawal methods, from bank transfers to stablecoins, with a clear view of fees, timing, access rules, and verification checks
Polymarket vs Kalshi for US Prediction TradersPolymarket vs Kalshi compares legal access, trading costs, liquidity, settlement, and market design so US traders can choose with fewer surprises up front.
Kalshi vs Manifold Markets: Which Platform Fits?Kalshi vs Manifold Markets compared: regulated real-money event contracts versus play-money forecasting, covering access, costs, rules, and use cases.
Event Contracts vs Sports Betting: Key DifferencesEvent contracts vs sports betting: compare rules, pricing, regulation, access, payouts, and risk before putting real money behind a view with caution.
Prediction Market Price Execution ExplainedPrediction market price execution determines what you actually pay. Learn spreads, order types, liquidity, fees, and how to judge a platform fairly well.
How Prediction Markets Settle Event ContractsLearn how prediction markets settle contracts, from outcome rules and source selection to disputes, voids, timing, and cash payouts on real platforms.
Maker Taker Fees in Prediction Markets ExplainedMaker taker fees prediction markets charge can alter total trading cost, fill odds, and liquidity. Learn how schedules, spreads, and rebates can work.
Prediction Market Identity Verification ExplainedPrediction market identity verification affects access, withdrawals, privacy, and legal eligibility. Learn what platforms check and why it matters most.
Prediction Market Regional Availability ExplainedPrediction market regional availability varies by law, platform structure, and funding method. Check access, restrictions, and practical risks before trading.
USDC Collateral Prediction Markets ExplainedUSDC collateral prediction markets use a dollar-pegged token for pricing and settlement. Learn the benefits, risks, access limits, and key checks early.
How On-Chain Prediction Markets Actually WorkOn-chain prediction markets offer open access and transparent settlement, but fees, liquidity, oracle risk, and local legality still decide your trade.
Prediction Market Fees Comparison for TradersA prediction market fees comparison that separates posted charges, spreads, network costs, and withdrawal friction before you place a trade for traders.
Best Prediction Market Platforms ComparedCompare the best prediction market platforms by legal access, fees, liquidity, settlement rules, funding options, and fit for your trading goals in the US.
Research & analysis
What a 23-platform prediction market documentation audit can tell you
Our dated source register explains why a readable website, a country block list and a fee percentage are not enough to establish trading eligibility or total cost.
Before comparing prediction market odds, compare the contract rules
Two contracts can have similar headlines and still settle differently. Use a five-part checklist before treating their prices as comparable.
Why a prediction market’s headline price is not your execution price
An order-book example shows how the spread and available size can change the cost of a position even when the displayed probability stays the same.
Prediction market fees: compare the cost of a complete trade
A worked example separates the contract price, trading fees and funding costs so two offers can be compared on the same basis.