Blog
Longer pieces: how accurate these markets actually are, what the data says, and where the incentives point.
Before comparing prediction market odds, compare the contract rules
Two contracts can have similar headlines and still settle differently. Use a five-part checklist before treating their prices as comparable.
Why a prediction market’s headline price is not your execution price
An order-book example shows how the spread and available size can change the cost of a position even when the displayed probability stays the same.
Prediction market fees: compare the cost of a complete trade
A worked example separates the contract price, trading fees and funding costs so two offers can be compared on the same basis.