Kalshi
CFTC-regulated event contract exchange
7.7Prelim
RegulatedFiatAPI
No welcome offer — see the review for the all-in cost per contract.
IndependentUpdated 19 Oct 2026Region: United States
Prediction markets
compared 2026
Compare prediction market platforms using published fees, access rules and documented research. Each review explains its sources and what remains unverified.
- 57platforms
- 18comparisons
- 9criteria
I read the rulebooks so you do not have to. The desk checks the facts — I just raise an eyebrow at them.
Top 10 platforms
Platforms you can use where you are come first, then by Editor Score across nine published criteria · paid placements are flagged AD and get no score boost
Last updated 19 Oct 2026
| # | Platform | Type | Fees | Availability | Score | Visit platform |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Kalshi | Regulated exchange | Taker 0.07·P·(1−P) — 1.75¢ at 50¢ | Available | 7.7 | VisitReview |
| 02 | Polymarket US | Regulated exchange | Taker ≤$1.74 per 100 at 50¢ · maker rebate | Restricted | 7.3 | Review |
| 03 | OG | Regulated exchange | Taker 7%×P(1−P), maker 1.75%×P(1−P) /contract | Available | 7.1 | Review |
| 04 | Novig | Regulated exchange | 0% maker · taker fee on live and futures | Available | 6.4 | Review |
| 05 | FanDuel Predicts | Broker | 2¢ per $1 of potential payout; same to cash out | Available | 6.2 | VisitReview |
| 06 | ProphetX | Regulated exchange | 2% of net gains per market | Restricted | 6.0 | Review |
| 07 | Interactive Brokers ForecastTrader | Broker | — | Available | 5.9 | VisitReview |
| 08 | Crypto.com Prediction Markets | Regulated exchange | $0.01–$0.0175/contract taker · 0% maker | Available | 5.8 | VisitReview |
| 09 | Underdog Predictions | Regulated exchange | UDX taker max $1.75/100 at 50¢; maker $0.44 | Restricted | 5.3 | Review |
| 10 | Alpha Arcade | Crypto · on-chain | Taker 0.07×p×(1−p); maker 0 | Available | 5.1 | Review |
Platforms without an affiliate program are ranked on the same terms — monetization never affects the order. Not scored yet: DraftKings Predictions, Onyx Odds (Onyx Predictions), Rain, Augur and 4 more.How we score →
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets are exchanges where you trade contracts on whether an event will happen — an election, a Fed decision, a game. A binary contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it does not, so its price reads as a probability: buy at 68¢ and you risk 68¢ to collect $1. Another trader takes the other side; the venue earns a fee for matching you.
In the US, event contracts are regulated as derivatives. Exchanges the CFTC has designated as contract markets may list them nationally — among those we review, Kalshi (since 3 November 2020) and Polymarket US (since 9 July 2025). Several states argue that sports contracts are sports betting under their own law, so what you can trade can depend on your state. The international polymarket.com is not open to US residents.
Costs differ more than headlines suggest. Many venues charge takers on a curve that peaks at 50¢ — Kalshi’s standard rate comes to $1.75 on 100 contracts at that price — and makers little or nothing; our fees guide prices the same trades side by side. We score platforms on 9 criteria from their own documents and regulator registers, and set them head to head, as in Kalshi vs Polymarket.
Best in United States
Region detected from your connection · only platforms you can actually use are ranked first
Polymarket US
CFTC-regulated US event-contract exchange run by QCX LLC, USD only
7.3Prelim
RegulatedFiatAPI
No welcome offer — see the review for the all-in cost per contract.
OG
Crypto.com’s standalone prediction-market app, listed on the NADEX/CDNA exchange
7.1Prelim
RegulatedFiatMobile
No welcome offer — see the review for the all-in cost per contract.
Novig
CFTC-designated peer-to-peer sports prediction market (Ludlow)
6.4Prelim
RegulatedFiatAPI
No welcome offer — see the review for the all-in cost per contract.
FanDuel Predicts
FanDuel event contracts listed by CME Group and Crypto.com
6.2Prelim
RegulatedFiatMobile
No welcome offer — see the review for the all-in cost per contract.
ProphetX
CFTC-designated sports-first exchange, peer-to-peer order book
6.0Prelim
RegulatedFiatAPI
No welcome offer — see the review for the all-in cost per contract.
Interactive Brokers ForecastTrader
Forecast contracts listed on ForecastEx, a CFTC-designated contract market
5.9Prelim
RegulatedFiat
No welcome offer — see the review for the all-in cost per contract.
Crypto.com Prediction Markets
USD-settled event contracts in the Crypto.com app, listed by CDNA
5.8Prelim
FiatMobile
No welcome offer — see the review for the all-in cost per contract.
Underdog Predictions
Underdog's own CFTC exchange (UDX) plus Kalshi access, inside the Underdog app
5.3Prelim
RegulatedFiatMobile
No welcome offer — see the review for the all-in cost per contract.
Alpha Arcade
Algorand order-book prediction market for sports, politics and crypto
5.1Prelim
API
No welcome offer — see the review for the all-in cost per contract.
PredictIt
Political event contracts run under CFTC no-action relief
3.9Prelim
Fiat
No welcome offer — see the review for the all-in cost per contract.
Manifold Markets
Play-money forecasting community
3.7Prelim
API
No welcome offer — see the review for the all-in cost per contract.
Is it legal where you live?
Which prediction markets are open in each country and US state, with the court orders and regulator actions behind each answer
Comparison of the week
FanDuel PredictsVSDraftKings Predictions
The two sportsbook brands’ prediction products are close cousins: both are US-only brokers offering CFTC-regulated contracts, centred on sports. FanDuel Predicts is scored on our model and available in all 50 states for financial contracts; DraftKings Predictions is newer, unscored so far, and excludes Maine and New Hampshire.
Not enough recorded facts on both sides to call a row-by-row edge yet.
Kalshi vs Crypto.com Prediction MarketsBoth are CFTC-regulated, but Crypto.com’s prediction trading is US-only and runs inside the Crypto.com app, while Kalshi is a stand-alone exchange open to many countries. Kalshi scores higher on our model; Crypto.com publishes one of the clearest fee schedules — no maker fee and a small fixed taker fee per contract.Kalshi vs DraftKings PredictionsKalshi is the established exchange with a scored review and a wide market list; DraftKings Predictions, launched in December 2025, is a broker product for US users centred on sports. We have not scored DraftKings yet, so the comparison rests on structure and access rather than on a score.Kalshi vs FanDuel PredictsKalshi is the exchange; FanDuel Predicts is a broker front-end to CFTC-regulated contracts. Kalshi scores higher on our model and lists a far wider range of markets — politics, economics, science as well as sports — while FanDuel suits sports-first traders who already use FanDuel and want contracts inside that account.Kalshi vs Interactive Brokers ForecastTraderKalshi is the specialist exchange with the broader market list; Interactive Brokers ForecastTrader brings ForecastEx contracts into a full brokerage account. Kalshi scores higher on our model. ForecastTrader suits existing IBKR clients who want economic and political contracts next to their other investments, with a flat, symmetric per-contract fee.
How we score platforms
Our model uses 9 criteria with fixed weights. We score the evidence we can document and leave unassessed criteria unrated. Funded-account tests are shown only when a review includes a dated test record. Liquidity has the largest declared weight (20%); commercial relationships do not affect scores.
- Editor score 0–10 — documented research, with a written note per assessed criterion
- Preliminary assessments — untested criteria stay unrated
- Availability — checked per region, not assumed from a marketing page
- Liquidity & volumes20%
- Fees & costs15%
- Regulation & trust15%
- Market variety12%
- Deposits & withdrawals12%
- UX & mobile10%
- Resolution8%
- Bonuses & promos4%
- Support4%
Research & blog
All articles →
News
Feed →Academy
Explainers on the basics, the practice and the legality · every piece has an author and an update date
Prediction markets FAQ
- Are prediction markets legal in the US?
Event contracts are regulated in the US as derivatives, and an exchange the CFTC has designated as a contract market may list them nationally — Kalshi and Polymarket US among them. Several states argue that sports contracts are sports betting under their own law and have taken that to court, so which markets you can trade can depend on your state.
Prediction market legality, state by state →- Can I use Polymarket from the US?
Not polymarket.com: the international site excludes US residents. Polymarket US is a separate exchange, run by QCX LLC and designated by the CFTC on 9 July 2025, with its own fee schedule in dollars rather than USDC.
Polymarket vs Polymarket US →- How do prediction markets make money?
From trading fees, not from your losses: another participant takes the other side of your trade, and the venue charges for matching it. Many charge takers on a curve that peaks at 50¢ and makers little or nothing. Kalshi’s taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), or $1.75 on 100 contracts at 50¢ at a series multiplier of one.
Prediction market fees compared →- Are prediction markets the same as sports betting?
No. At a sportsbook the house takes the other side and sets the odds; on a prediction market another trader does, and you can sell before the event. Sportsbooks are licensed state by state, while US prediction markets are CFTC-regulated exchanges — which several states dispute for sports.
Prediction markets vs sports betting →- How are prediction market winnings taxed?
There is no settled answer yet. Gains could be treated as capital gains, ordinary income, under the mark-to-market rules for regulated futures, or as gambling, and the answer can depend on the venue, the contract and you. Keep a record of every fill, fee and settlement, and ask a qualified tax adviser.
Event contract taxes: the questions to ask →
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