PredictIt review

PredictIt is an order-book market in political and economic event contracts, priced in cents between 1¢ and 99¢, where a correct share pays $1. It has run since 2014 as a research project rather than a commercial exchange, and that origin is still visible in its rules: the CFTC letter it operates under requires that advertisements disclose “that the proposed market is unregulated, experimental, and being operated for academic purposes”.

Market data is genuinely open. We pulled 186 live markets from its public API without an account, and each one carries its full settlement rules in the response — so you can read exactly what a contract turns on before you put money near it. That is better disclosure than several venues with real regulators.

What you are trading against, though, is the operator. There is no exchange, no clearing house and no separate settlement agent: PredictIt lists the contract, writes the rules and decides the outcome.

The single most repeated claim about this venue is that it is “CFTC-approved”. We read CFTC Letter No. 25-20 and its parent, Letter No. 14-130, in full on 9 September 2026. Between them they transfer operation of the market to Prediction Market Research Consortium, remove the old 5,000-trader cap, limit the scope to political event contracts, and cap what any one participant may hold in a single contract at the Federal Election Campaign Act individual contribution limit — US$3,500 at the letter’s date, adjusted for inflation every two years.

What neither letter contains is any provision about how a contract is determined, what happens when a result is ambiguous, or what recourse a participant has. Not one line. Staff no-action relief is a promise not to recommend enforcement; it is not a licence, not a registration, and not a supervision regime, and it can be withdrawn at the staff’s discretion.

PredictIt’s own terms are unusually direct about the consequence: it “is not regulated by, nor are its operators registered with, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or any other regulatory authority.” Read that alongside any article describing it as regulated.

Settlement is governed by clause 7.iv of the terms, headed “Judging”, and the wording leaves little room: “The Provider’s decision under clause 7. iv (including its interpretation of the Rules and its findings of fact in applying them) will be final. By accepting these terms and conditions you waive your right to seek other remedies (to the maximum extent permitted by law).” Where the rules do not cover what happened, “PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action”, at its sole discretion.

The internal route is to raise it confidentially and in good faith, and issues about a market are not addressed until that market closes. Beyond that, the terms send everything to binding arbitration administered by the American Arbitration Association, with a class-action waiver and a 30-day window to opt out of the arbitration clause.

One clause deserves to be read before you rely on any of that. Clause 9.ii permits PredictIt to suspend or cancel an account “at any time, for any reason (including but not limited to the commencement of arbitration or other formal litigation or dispute process), without any explanation or advance notice.” A remedy you can be removed from the platform for pursuing is a thin remedy.

It suits someone who wants long-running political questions, a price history going back years, and settlement rules they can read in advance — and who understands that the operator is judge in its own cause. The stated review period is usually under 48 hours, and longer “where the circumstances are ambiguous or the settlement criteria are not readily available”.

It does not suit anyone whose reason for choosing a US venue is the regulator. On that specific question a CFTC-designated exchange — Kalshi, ForecastEx, DKeX or CME through their respective apps — is a different category of counterparty, whatever else you make of them.

A practical note if you go looking for the terms yourself: the terms-and-conditions page renders blank in a browser, and the text is served only from the site’s own API endpoint. That is where we read it.