Are prediction markets legal in the US?

Event contracts are regulated in the US as derivatives, under the Commodity Exchange Act. An exchange the CFTC has designated as a contract market (a DCM) may list them nationally, and the CFTC’s own register is where that status can be checked — see what CFTC designation means.

The venues we review that sit on that register: Kalshi (designated 3 November 2020), ForecastEx, which lists the contracts sold through Interactive Brokers ForecastTrader (24 June 2024), Polymarket US (QCX LLC, 9 July 2025), ProphetX (11 June 2026) and Novig (Ludlow Exchange, LLC, 16 June 2026). Others reach the same kind of contract as brokers: FanDuel Predicts is a registered futures commission merchant offering contracts listed on CME, and Crypto.com offers prediction trading through its US derivatives exchange.

So the short answer is yes: trading event contracts on a designated exchange is legal under federal law. What the register does not settle is whether a state may still stop a particular contract — and that is where the fight is.

States argue that sports contracts are sports betting under their own law, which needs a state licence. Courts have split, and some orders are already in force. In Nevada a district court injunction bars Kalshi’s sports, election and entertainment contracts, and Kalshi agreed to geofence them (Nevada Gaming Control Board); a Nevada court has also enjoined Polymarket US. In Washington a King County order covers Kalshi’s sports, politics, entertainment and several other categories (Washington Attorney General). In Michigan an injunction of 1 September 2026 covers Kalshi’s sports contracts (Michigan Attorney General).

The federal appeals courts disagree with each other. The Third Circuit held in April 2026 that federal law likely pre-empts New Jersey’s gambling law for sports contracts on a designated exchange (opinion); the Sixth Circuit ruled the other way on 25 September 2026 in cases from Ohio and Tennessee (opinion). New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to decide, counting “at least 39 lawsuits across 20 States” in its petition (petition).

Every order above targets categories — sports first, and in Washington politics and entertainment too. Economic, crypto and weather contracts stayed open in the same states. So “is it legal in my state” has two parts: whether the venue serves your state at all, and whether the contract you want is one a court has blocked there.

Some venues also draw their own lines. Novig says it does not operate in Arizona, Michigan or Nevada and requires users to be 21. Eligibility usually follows where you are when you trade, not your billing address.

The international polymarket.com is not a US exchange and does not accept deposits or new trades from US residents; they are sent to Polymarket US instead. PredictIt runs under CFTC staff no-action relief rather than a designation, and only US Persons may take part. Play-money sites such as Manifold are outside this question altogether, because no money is at stake.

First, find the exact legal entity on the CFTC’s register of trading organisations — a brand name is not enough. Second, read the operator’s own list of excluded states, if it publishes one; several do not. Third, check whether your state has an order against the contract category you want. Our US availability page and each platform review record what we found, with the source and the date.

This is general information, not legal advice, and state positions change quickly.