PredictHub editorial desk
PredictHub editorial
The editorial desk behind PredictHub’s prediction market guides, platform reviews and research. Materials without an individual byline are credited to the desk.
49 published materials
Contact the editorial team ↗Published work
Latest first- blog↗
Why a prediction market’s headline price is not your execution price
An order-book example shows how the spread and available size can change the cost of a position even when the displayed probability stays the same.
- blog↗
Prediction market fees: compare the cost of a complete trade
A worked example separates the contract price, trading fees and funding costs so two offers can be compared on the same basis.
- blog↗
What a 23-platform prediction market documentation audit can tell you
Our dated source register explains why a readable website, a country block list and a fee percentage are not enough to establish trading eligibility or total cost.
- blog↗
Before comparing prediction market odds, compare the contract rules
Two contracts can have similar headlines and still settle differently. Use a five-part checklist before treating their prices as comparable.
- news↗
George Santos was fined for trading a contract on whether he would show up
The CFTC ordered the former congressman to pay $35,069 over a "Who will attend the State of the Union?" contract, finding he traded his own attendance while making misleading statements about it.
- news↗
The CFTC says exchanges are filing deficient paperwork for prediction-market promotions
A 12 August advisory tells venues their incentive-program submissions for event contracts are incomplete — which matters because the promotions you are offered are regulatory filings, not marketing.
- news↗
A White House teleprompter operator was fined for trading presidential mention markets
The CFTC ordered Gabriel Perez to pay $172,539 and banned him from trading for three years, after he read speeches before delivery and bought contracts on the words they contained.
- academy↗
Is Kalshi legal? Registration, eligibility and contract rules
How to separate federal exchange registration from your own eligibility to trade a particular contract.
- academy↗
What CFTC designation means
What a designated contract market is, what registration does and does not settle, and how to check a claim. Not legal advice.
- academy↗
Common beginner mistakes
Seven ways to lose money while being right, most of them arithmetic rather than judgement.
- academy↗
What moves a contract price
News, time, the cost of money, uninformative flow and resolution risk — in roughly that order of how often they are misread.
- academy↗
Taxes on event contracts: the US contour
The questions that determine treatment, why none of them has a settled answer, and what to keep records of. Not tax advice.
- academy↗
Play money and real money are not comparable
Why a gap between a mana price and a dollar price is not an opportunity, and what a play-money price is still good for.
- academy↗
How settlement and payout work
What happens when a contract ends, and why selling early is a different transaction.
- academy↗
What a 68¢ contract actually costs
The arithmetic of a position: contracts bought, money committed, and the win rate the price implies.
- academy↗
Fees and the true cost of a trade
Spread plus fee plus the cost of moving money — and why a small edge does not survive all three.
- academy↗
Order books vs automated market makers
Two ways a price gets made, and what each one hides about the cost of trading.
- academy↗
Prediction markets vs options
Why an event contract is not a derivative on an asset, and what that changes about the price.
- academy↗
Prediction markets vs sportsbooks
Who takes the other side, where the margin sits, and why the two prices mean different things.
- academy↗
Liquidity and spreads
Why a wide spread makes the midpoint meaningless, and why depth matters more than the headline price.