Strategy · lesson 07 of 09
How to make money on Kalshi, and why most traders don’t
Traders make money on Kalshi by buying contracts the market has priced too low, by selling before settlement, or by providing liquidity. The research is sobering: across 300,000 contracts, the average Kalshi contract lost about 20% of what was paid for it. Where the losses concentrate and what that implies.
In one minute
- Profit needs a better estimate of the chance than the price, after fees and the spread.
- A 2026 study found an average return of about −20% on Kalshi contracts, and over −60% on contracts under 10¢.
- Traders whose orders rested on the book (makers) lost far less than those who took prices (takers).
- Kalshi also pays liquidity rewards to resting orders in selected markets, for US users, until 1 January 2027.
The ways traders profit
- Directional trading: buy a contract you think is underpriced. At 40¢, you profit only if the event happens more than 40% of the time, after fees.
- Selling early: a position can be sold at the current bid before the result, to lock in a gain or cut a loss.
- Market making: in Kalshi’s words, market makers “make money by collecting the spread (the difference between the bid and ask)”, and take the risk that prices move against them.
- Liquidity rewards: Kalshi’s Liquidity Incentive Program “pays you for maintaining orders on the books… even if your orders don’t get filled”, from $1 to $1,000 per market per day, until 1 January 2027; international users are not eligible (Kalshi help centre).
What the research found
Economists Bürgi, Deng and Whelan analysed more than 300,000 Kalshi contracts from its launch in 2021 to April 2025 (“Makers and Takers”, working paper). Their findings:
Finding | Figure |
|---|---|
Average return on Kalshi contracts | About −20% |
Contracts bought for under 10¢ | Lost over 60% of the money paid |
Average return for makers | −9.64% |
Average return for takers | −31.46% |
Makers buying contracts at 50¢ and over | +2.6% |
Two patterns stand out. Longshots are overpriced: cheap contracts on unlikely outcomes lose the most. And patience pays: posting a limit order and waiting did far better than crossing the spread. Contracts priced above 70¢ showed small but statistically significant positive returns after fees. The study covers Kalshi’s pre-2025 fee structure and leaves out its hourly crypto and index markets.
Costs that eat returns
- Trading fees, highest on contracts near 50¢; see Kalshi fees.
- The spread, every time you buy at the ask and sell at the bid; see bid vs ask.
- A 2% fee on debit card deposits; bank transfers are free.
- Designated market makers can get reduced fees, but Kalshi notes they “may face losses like any other participant” (market maker programme).
Treat money on Kalshi as money you can afford to lose. To size positions with an edge you believe you have, see the Kelly calculator.
See it live on Kalshi
CFTC-regulated event contract exchange
Common questions
Can you actually make money on Kalshi?+
Some traders do, but on average contracts lose money: a 2026 study of over 300,000 Kalshi contracts found an average return of about −20%. Makers lost far less than takers, and longshots lost the most.
Is it better to be a maker or a taker on Kalshi?+
In the research, makers, whose orders rested on the book, averaged −9.64% against −31.46% for takers. Makers buying contracts at 50¢ and above averaged +2.6%.
Does Kalshi pay you to provide liquidity?+
Yes, in selected markets. Its Liquidity Incentive Program pays $1 to $1,000 per market per day for qualifying resting orders, even unfilled ones, until 1 January 2027. International users are not eligible.
Why do cheap Kalshi contracts lose money?+
The study found contracts under 10¢ lost over 60% of the money paid: unlikely outcomes are systematically overpriced, a longshot bias also seen in sports betting.