Legality · lesson 04 of 04

What is the CFTC? What the letters stand for and why it matters

CFTC stands for Commodity Futures Trading Commission — the independent US agency that regulates futures, options, swaps and the event contracts traded on prediction-market exchanges such as Kalshi and Polymarket US.

What CFTC stands for

CFTC stands for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It is an independent federal agency, and its own stated mission is “to promote the integrity, resilience, and vibrancy of the U.S. derivatives markets through sound regulation” (cftc.gov).

The name is older than the markets it now oversees. “Commodity futures” meant grain, livestock and metals when the agency was founded; today the same commission supervises contracts on interest rates, stock indexes, crypto assets and — the reason it matters on this site — real-world events.

A $100 position at 68¢

Contracts bought at 68¢
147
Payout if it resolves YES
$147
Profit before fees
$47
Loss if it resolves NO
$100

When and why it was created

Congress passed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Act of 1974 on 23–24 October 1974, and President Gerald Ford signed it. The Act overhauled the Commodity Exchange Act and replaced the Commodity Exchange Authority, which had covered only the agricultural commodities named in the statute, with a commission given exclusive jurisdiction over futures trading in all commodities. Regulatory authority passed to the new agency on 21 April 1975 (CFTC history, 1970s).

Its remit widened again in 2010. Title VII of the Dodd-Frank Act amended the Commodity Exchange Act to create a framework for swaps, bringing swap dealers, clearing and trade execution under the CFTC (CFTC history, 2010s).

How the commission is run

By statute the Commission has five Commissioners, appointed by the President with the advice and consent of the Senate to staggered five-year terms; the President designates one as Chairman, and no more than three may come from the same political party (cftc.gov).

Five is the full complement, not always the number sitting. On 1 October 2026 the CFTC’s own commissioners page lists one member: Chairman Michael S. Selig, sworn in on 22 December 2025. Decisions about event contracts — including how sports and election contracts are treated — therefore currently rest with a single commissioner, which is worth knowing when you read that “the CFTC” has taken a position.

What the CFTC does for prediction markets

In the US, an event contract — “will the Fed cut rates in December?”, “who wins the election?” — is regulated as a derivative under the Commodity Exchange Act, so the CFTC is the federal regulator of the exchanges that list them. It does three things that matter to a trader:

It designates exchanges. A venue that wants to list contracts to the US public applies to become a designated contract market (DCM); the register of who holds that status is public. What CFTC designation means explains what that status does and does not guarantee.

It registers clearing houses. The derivatives clearing organisation (DCO) is the entity that holds margin and stands between buyer and seller; its registration is separate from the exchange’s.

It reviews contracts. Exchanges usually self-certify that a new contract complies with the law, and the Commission can review event contracts that involve gaming, unlawful activity or other categories it may find contrary to the public interest. How that power applies to sports and elections is the live question in the state lawsuits — see are prediction markets legal in the US?.

Which prediction markets the CFTC regulates

The venues we review that operate as CFTC-designated exchanges or sell contracts listed on one include Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig, ProphetX and Interactive Brokers ForecastTrader (contracts listed on ForecastEx). Each review names the exact legal entity and the date of its designation, read from the regulator’s register.

The international polymarket.com is not a CFTC-registered exchange and excludes US residents; PredictIt has operated under CFTC staff no-action relief rather than a designation. The difference is set out in Polymarket vs Polymarket US. For the US-regulated venues ranked side by side, see the best regulated prediction markets.

CFTC vs SEC

The two are often confused. The SEC regulates securities — shares, bonds, funds — and the exchanges and brokers that trade them. The CFTC regulates derivatives: futures, options on futures, swaps and event contracts. A prediction-market contract is not a share in anything; it is a contract that pays a fixed amount if an event happens, which is why it sits with the CFTC. Some firms deal with both: Interactive Brokers and Robinhood are registered with each regulator for different businesses.

How to check a platform’s CFTC status yourself

Look up the operator’s legal entity — not its brand — on the CFTC’s register of trading organisations. Brokers and other intermediaries are registered through the National Futures Association, and its BASIC search shows their status and any disciplinary history. A platform that says it is “CFTC regulated” but whose entity appears in neither is making a claim you should not rely on.

If something goes wrong, the CFTC takes tips and complaints at cftc.gov/complaint. Registration also determines what happens to your money: on a designated exchange customer funds are segregated, which is one of the reasons fees and the true cost of a trade are not the only thing to compare between venues.

Converting to odds you already know

Decimal odds are 1 ÷ price. American odds are the same probability expressed as a stake-to-win ratio.
Contract priceImplied probabilityDecimalAmerican
10¢10%10.00+900
25¢25%4.00+300
50¢50%2.00+100
68¢68%1.47−213
80¢80%1.25−400
95¢95%1.05−1900

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CFTC-regulated event contract exchange

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Common questions

What does CFTC stand for?

Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It is the independent US federal agency that regulates the derivatives markets — futures, options, swaps and event contracts.

When was the CFTC created?

By the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Act of 1974, signed by President Ford in October 1974. The agency took over regulation of futures trading from the Commodity Exchange Authority on 21 April 1975.

Does the CFTC regulate prediction markets?

It regulates the US exchanges that list event contracts, such as Kalshi and Polymarket US, as designated contract markets. Offshore sites that exclude US residents, such as polymarket.com, are outside its registration framework.

How many commissioners does the CFTC have?

Five seats by statute, on staggered five-year terms, with no more than three from one party. On 1 October 2026 the CFTC lists one sitting member, Chairman Michael S. Selig.

What is the difference between the CFTC and the SEC?

The SEC regulates securities such as shares and bonds; the CFTC regulates derivatives such as futures, swaps and event contracts. Prediction-market contracts fall under the CFTC.