Platform review
Robinhood Predictions review
Event contracts inside the Robinhood brokerage app, listed on third-party exchanges
Our verdict
The most accessible way into event contracts in the United States, and the one where you are least likely to know whose rules govern your position. Robinhood is candid that it decides nothing: “Robinhood doesn’t determine the official settlement rules”, and “The exchange’s determination is final. Robinhood can’t override exchange settlement.” The exchange, though, is one of three — contracts come “through either KalshiEX LLC, ForecastEX, LLC or Rothera Exchange and Clearing LLC” — the choice is made per contract, and no Robinhood page maps categories to exchanges. Two of the three publish well; Rothera’s rulebook we could not find published anywhere, even though its own contract terms send you to “Rothera DCM Rule 7.2” for the fallback that decides your payout. The cost is the other thing to read twice: the commission is a formula, not a percentage, at 10% of p × (1 − p) per contract without a Gold subscription, which peaks on the coin-flip markets people are most drawn to. Good for breadth, a familiar app and a real regulated broker with CFTC reparations preserved. Weak on telling you which rulebook you are actually trading under.
Verified documents & product scope
Check country eligibility
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Eligibility
Requires US residency, an individual brokerage account and approval for Robinhood Derivatives. Sports-contract restrictions vary by state; Maryland and Nevada must not be described as blanket bans on every event contract.
Understanding the fees
Robinhood uses probability-weighted commissions with a membership-dependent constant, rounding and a per-contract cap. Exchange fees are additional. Check both opening and closing costs in the current fee schedule.
These are document checks, not a funded-account test. Access may depend on residence, physical location, account approval and the contract category. Check the operator’s current terms before depositing.
- Event contracts overview — checked
US residency and an approved derivatives account are required. Maryland restrictions concern sports contracts; Nevada is close-only for sports. Further state restrictions may apply.
- Event contract commissions — checked
Commissions are probability-weighted and depend on Gold membership, with rounding, a per-contract cap and additional exchange charges.
Pros and cons
What works
- Robinhood is explicit that it does not determine settlement and cannot override it
- A CFTC-registered broker and NFA member, with reparations under Section 14 expressly preserved
- The widest category range of the US brokered apps, in an app most users already have
- Contract terms for all three exchanges are reachable without an account
What doesn’t
- The most expensive published schedule we could read — 10% of p × (1 − p) per contract without Gold, peaking on coin-flip markets
- Three different exchanges list the contracts and no page maps categories to exchanges, so you cannot tell whose rulebook governs your position
- One of the three, Rothera, does not appear to publish its rulebook at all — including the rule its own contract terms cite for the fair-value fallback
- All three exchanges declare outcome determinations final, so there is no appeal on a settlement
- The party you can take to reparations is the party that cannot change a settlement
Prices and liquidity
We do not currently publish live quotes for Robinhood Predictions. Check the platform’s order book before placing an order: the last trade can differ from the price available for your position size.
How to assess liquidity and spreads →How Robinhood event contracts work
Robinhood Derivatives is a broker, not an exchange, and it says so plainly: “Event contracts are offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC through either KalshiEX LLC, ForecastEX, LLC or Rothera Exchange and Clearing LLC.” You trade inside the Robinhood app; the contract is listed, settled and determined somewhere else.
That is stated more clearly here than at most competitors. Its help pages say “Robinhood doesn’t determine the official settlement rules. These terms are determined by the exchange partner that offers the event contract”, and go further: “The exchange’s determination is final. Robinhood can’t override exchange settlement, even if third-party sources (such as sports apps or news sites) show a different result.” The client agreement carries the same point contractually.
Robinhood Derivatives itself is a CFTC registrant and an NFA member — NFA ID 0424278, shown as approved on NFA BASIC — which matters for the one thing it does control, covered below.
The cost is a formula, and it peaks where you are most likely to trade
The commission is not a percentage of your stake. It is k × p × (1 − p) per contract, where p is the price, k is 10% without a Gold subscription and 5% with one, rounded up to the nearest cent, plus an exchange fee that varies and can reach a further cent per contract.
The shape of that formula matters more than its headline. Because of the p × (1 − p) term the charge is largest at a price of 50¢ — a genuine coin-flip — and falls away toward the extremes. Ten per cent of 0.25 is 2.5¢ on a $1 contract at the midpoint, which is a substantial cost on the exact markets that draw the most interest. It is the most expensive published schedule of any venue in this pool whose schedule we could read.
Three exchanges, and you cannot tell which one you are on
The routing is per contract, not global. One logged-out event page carried terms and conditions hosted on three different exchange domains, and no Robinhood page we found maps market categories to exchanges. So a customer holding two positions can be under two different rulebooks without any page telling them so.
Two of the three publish properly. Kalshi’s rulebook and per-contract terms are public, and it keeps a dated archive of trade-review and disciplinary notices that anyone can list. ForecastEx publishes a full rulebook and a specification for every instrument.
The third is the problem. We could not find Rothera Exchange and Clearing — formerly LedgerX, latterly MIAX Derivatives Exchange, renamed in January 2026 — publishing its rulebook anywhere. Its own contract terms refer the reader to “Rothera DCM Rule 7.2” for the fair-value fallback that decides a payout when an event cannot be determined normally, and that rule is not public. It does serve an open index of contract terms PDFs, so the contracts are readable even though the rules governing them are not.
What recourse exists
Against the exchanges, effectively none on an outcome. Kalshi’s rulebook gives interpretation to the exchange in “sole discretion”, assigns the decision to an Outcome Review Committee and states that its determinations “are final”, in three separate places. Its appeal ladder runs from a disciplinary action taken against you, not from a settlement you disagree with.
Against the broker, the route is real. Robinhood’s arbitration agreement preserves the statutory alternative in capitals: “YOU ARE NOT, HOWEVER, WAIVING YOUR RIGHT TO ELECT INSTEAD TO PETITION THE CFTC TO INSTITUTE REPARATIONS PROCEEDINGS UNDER SECTION 14…” Reparations reach CFTC registrants, which is the broker.
Hold those two together and the practical position is clear: the party you can complain to is the party that, in its own words, cannot change a settlement. That is not unique to Robinhood — it is true of every brokered venue on this site — but the three-exchange routing makes it harder to see here than anywhere else.
User reviews
We have no approved reviews for Robinhood Predictions. Every submission is read by a moderator before it appears, and none has passed for this platform. The User Score is not published below 3 reviews, so nothing is averaged here either — the Editor Score above is measured against our own criteria and does not depend on it.
New review submissions are temporarily closed. For corrections, contact bestpredictionmarkets@proton.me.
Robinhood Predictions FAQ
- Which exchange actually settles my Robinhood event contract?
- One of three, and the app does not tell you which. Robinhood’s own wording is that contracts are offered “through either KalshiEX LLC, ForecastEX, LLC or Rothera Exchange and Clearing LLC”, and the routing is per contract rather than per category. We found no Robinhood page mapping market categories to exchanges. It matters because the rulebook that governs a disputed settlement is the exchange’s, not Robinhood’s — and Rothera does not appear to publish its rulebook at all, even though its contract terms cite a specific rule from it for the fallback that decides a payout.
- How much do Robinhood event contracts cost to trade?
- The commission is a formula rather than a percentage: k × p × (1 − p) per contract, where p is the price, k is 10% without a Gold subscription and 5% with one, rounded up to the nearest cent — plus an exchange fee that varies and can add up to another cent per contract. Because of the p × (1 − p) term, the charge is largest at 50¢ and falls away toward the extremes, so it is heaviest on precisely the coin-flip markets that attract the most interest.