Prediction Markets Best editorial desk
Prediction Markets Best editorial
The editorial desk behind the prediction market guides, platform reviews and research on Prediction Markets Best. Materials without an individual byline are credited to the desk.
122 published materials
Contact the editorial team ↗Published work
Latest first- news↗
George Santos was fined for trading a contract on whether he would show up
The CFTC ordered the former congressman to pay $35,069 over a "Who will attend the State of the Union?" contract, finding he traded his own attendance while making misleading statements about it.
- news↗
The CFTC says exchanges are filing deficient paperwork for prediction-market promotions
A 12 August advisory tells venues their incentive-program submissions for event contracts are incomplete — which matters because the promotions you are offered are regulatory filings, not marketing.
- news↗
A White House teleprompter operator was fined for trading presidential mention markets
The CFTC ordered Gabriel Perez to pay $172,539 and banned him from trading for three years, after he read speeches before delivery and bought contracts on the words they contained.
- academy↗
Is Kalshi legal? Registration, eligibility and contract rules
How Kalshi is legal — a CFTC-designated exchange under federal law — where state court orders limit it, and how to check your own eligibility.
- academy↗
What CFTC designation means
What a designated contract market is, what registration does and does not settle, and how to check a claim. Not legal advice.
- academy↗
Common beginner mistakes
Seven ways to lose money while being right, most of them arithmetic rather than judgement.
- academy↗
What moves a contract price
News, time, the cost of money, uninformative flow and resolution risk — in roughly that order of how often they are misread.
- academy↗
Kalshi taxes: what the US rules say about event contract gains
The questions that determine treatment, why none of them has a settled answer, and what to keep records of. Not tax advice.
- academy↗
Play money and real money are not comparable
Why a gap between a mana price and a dollar price is not an opportunity, and what a play-money price is still good for.
- academy↗
How settlement and payout work
What happens when a contract ends, and why selling early is a different transaction.
- academy↗
What a 68¢ contract actually costs
The arithmetic of a position: contracts bought, money committed, and the win rate the price implies.
- academy↗
Fees and the true cost of a trade
Spread plus fee plus the cost of moving money — and why a small edge does not survive all three.
- academy↗
Order books vs automated market makers
Two ways a price gets made, and what each one hides about the cost of trading.
- academy↗
Prediction markets vs options
Why an event contract is not a derivative on an asset, and what that changes about the price.
- academy↗
Liquidity and spreads
Why a wide spread makes the midpoint meaningless, and why depth matters more than the headline price.
- academy↗
Oracles and disputed resolutions
How an on-chain market learns what happened, and what a dispute does to the price.
- academy↗
How a prediction market resolves
The resolution criteria are the contract. Everything else is commentary.
- academy↗
YES plus NO is more than a dollar: reading price as probability
Where the extra cents come from, how to divide them out, and why raw prices cannot be compared across venues.
- academy↗
Binary, scalar and categorical contracts
Three payoff shapes, three different things a price is telling you.
- academy↗
How to read contract prices
Turning cents into probability, and what the spread tells you before you trade.