Data · reference table
2028 presidential election odds, from prediction market prices
What traders are paying on each candidate for the White House and for the two nominations, read as a percentage chance. Prices come from Polymarket and refresh every 15 minutes; a candidate appears only where at least $10,000 has been traded and buyers and sellers are close on price.
Chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask on Polymarket’s public market data; untraded and stale markets are left out. Market prices are traders’ estimates, not forecasts, and change through the day. Last updated . Free to cite with a link to this page. Not legal advice.
Who will win the 2028 presidential election?
Polymarket, “Presidential Election Winner 2028”: $723.6M traded in total. See the market
| Candidate or outcome | Chance | 7-day change (points) | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 18.4% | −2.1 | $18.0M |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 12.7% | — | $14.1M |
| Gavin Newsom | 11.3% | +0.9 | $18.9M |
| Jon Ossoff | 9.8% | +0.5 | $6.2M |
| Marco Rubio | 9.6% | +0.7 | $13.2M |
| Kamala Harris | 4.0% | +0.1 | $9.5M |
| Josh Shapiro | 2.6% | −0.3 | $7.7M |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.6% | +0.1 | $12.8M |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.5% | −0.3 | $8.6M |
| Andy Beshear | 2.1% | −0.1 | $19.4M |
Which party will win in 2028?
Polymarket, “Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?”: $2.5M traded in total. See the market
| Candidate or outcome | Chance | 7-day change (points) | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 64.5% | −1.0 | $1.3M |
| Republican | 34.5% | — | $1.3M |
Democratic nominee for 2028
Polymarket, “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028”: $1.30B traded in total. See the market
| Candidate or outcome | Chance | 7-day change (points) | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16.6% | −0.1 | $15.6M |
| Gavin Newsom | 16.0% | −0.5 | $28.1M |
| Jon Ossoff | 15.2% | −0.4 | $13.6M |
| Kamala Harris | 5.8% | −0.7 | $14.4M |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.1% | — | $12.3M |
| Josh Shapiro | 5.0% | −0.2 | $10.3M |
| Andy Beshear | 3.6% | +0.3 | $13.5M |
| James Talarico | 2.6% | −0.2 | $11.2M |
| Wes Moore | 2.1% | +0.1 | $18.6M |
| Raphael Warnock | 1.9% | −0.1 | $34.4M |
Republican nominee for 2028
Polymarket, “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028”: $719.8M traded in total. See the market
| Candidate or outcome | Chance | 7-day change (points) | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 38.8% | −5.4 | $16.4M |
| Marco Rubio | 20.6% | +5.1 | $11.1M |
| Ron DeSantis | 3.8% | +0.5 | $16.1M |
| Tucker Carlson | 2.9% | −0.1 | $13.9M |
| Ted Cruz | 2.6% | +0.5 | $19.9M |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.7% | −0.1 | $9.8M |
| Donald Trump | 1.7% | −0.3 | $9.7M |
| Ivanka Trump | 1.4% | −0.1 | $8.9M |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.9% | +0.6 | $9.0M |
| Brian Kemp | 0.8% | +0.2 | $18.1M |
How to read these odds
A candidate at 20% is a contract trading at about 20¢ that pays $1 if they win. That is the price at which traders are willing to buy and sell, not a poll and not a forecast, and early in a race it moves with every announcement. Two years out, many of the people listed may never run, so long lists of small chances are normal. The 7-day change is in percentage points: +2.0 means 18% became 20%.
Why a price is a probability, and why YES and NO add up to slightly more than $1, is in reading price as probability; convert any of these chances to betting odds with the odds to probability converter.
Where the 2028 election trades
- Polymarket — the prices on this page. Its main site does not accept US residents, who are directed to the separate Polymarket US app. Polymarket review
- Kalshi — a CFTC-regulated exchange open to US residents, with 2028 presidential markets. Kalshi review
- PredictIt — lists which party will win in 2028. PredictIt review
Which of these you can use depends on where you live: the best election prediction markets and availability by state. Not betting or investment advice.
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored to win the 2028 presidential election?
The table at the top of this page lists each candidate’s chance on Polymarket, most likely first, from prices refreshed every 15 minutes. A price of 20¢ on a candidate reads as a 20% chance. These are traders’ estimates, not polls or forecasts, and they move with news.
- How do prediction market odds work?
Each candidate has a contract that pays $1 if they win and nothing if they do not, so its price in cents is the market’s probability in percent. The chances across all candidates add up to a little over 100% because of the gap between buying and selling prices.
- Can you bet on the 2028 election in the US?
Polymarket’s main site, whose prices are shown here, does not accept US residents; its help centre directs them to the separate Polymarket US app. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, has 2028 presidential markets; in September 2024 a federal court vacated the CFTC’s order blocking its contracts on control of Congress, which opened US election trading on it. Check what is available in your state before trading.
- When is the 2028 presidential election?
Tuesday 7 November 2028: US federal law sets presidential elections on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November.