Data · reference table
Bitcoin price prediction: what prediction markets price for 2026
The chance that Bitcoin and Ether reach, or fall to, each price level before the end of 2026, read from Polymarket prices and refreshed every 15 minutes. A level appears only where at least $10,000 has been traded and buyers and sellers are close on price.
Chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask on Polymarket’s public market data; untraded, stale and already-resolved levels are left out. Market prices are traders’ estimates, not forecasts. Last updated . Free to cite with a link to this page. Not legal advice.
Bitcoin: chance of reaching each price in 2026
Polymarket, “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?”: $86.7M traded in total. See the market
| Price level | Chance | 7-day change (points) | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reaches $90,000 | 6.5% | −17.0 | $3.2M |
| Reaches $95,000 | 4.5% | −8.0 | $1.4M |
| Reaches $100,000 | 3.0% | −5.5 | $4.4M |
| Reaches $110,000 | 1.7% | −1.7 | $2.4M |
| Reaches $120,000 | 1.2% | −1.8 | $2.5M |
| Reaches $130,000 | 1.0% | −1.1 | $2.4M |
| Reaches $140,000 | 0.8% | −0.7 | $1.4M |
| Reaches $150,000 | 0.8% | −0.8 | $1.4M |
| Reaches $160,000 | 0.5% | −0.9 | $801K |
| Reaches $170,000 | 0.7% | −0.5 | $493K |
| Reaches $180,000 | 0.5% | −0.6 | $606K |
| Reaches $190,000 | 0.4% | −0.4 | $843K |
| Reaches $200,000 | 0.3% | −0.5 | $2.2M |
| Reaches $250,000 | 0.1% | — | $5.7M |
| Reaches $500,000 | 0.1% | −0.2 | $1.8M |
| Reaches $1,000,000 | 0.1% | — | $3.4M |
Bitcoin: chance of falling to each price in 2026
Polymarket, “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?”: $86.7M traded in total. See the market
| Price level | Chance | 7-day change (points) | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falls to $65,000 | 81.5% | +50.0 | $1.3M |
| Falls to $60,000 | 46.5% | +27.0 | $2.1M |
| Falls to $55,000 | 21.5% | +9.0 | $8.0M |
| Falls to $50,000 | 11.6% | +5.1 | $5.8M |
| Falls to $45,000 | 6.4% | +3.5 | $9.6M |
| Falls to $40,000 | 4.0% | +1.8 | $3.0M |
| Falls to $35,000 | 2.1% | +0.3 | $3.8M |
| Falls to $30,000 | 2.3% | +0.4 | $982K |
| Falls to $25,000 | 1.5% | −0.1 | $1.6M |
| Falls to $20,000 | 1.4% | +0.9 | $734K |
| Falls to $15,000 | 1.3% | +0.7 | $5.1M |
| Falls to $10,000 | 1.4% | +0.9 | $953K |
| Falls to $5,000 | 0.5% | +0.2 | $871K |
Ethereum: chance of reaching each price in 2026
Polymarket, “What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?”: $20.2M traded in total. See the market
| Price level | Chance | 7-day change (points) | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reaches $3,000 | 5.5% | −11.0 | $425K |
| Reaches $3,500 | 2.4% | −4.2 | $1.2M |
| Reaches $4,000 | 1.4% | −1.7 | $702K |
| Reaches $4,500 | 1.6% | −0.7 | $621K |
| Reaches $5,000 | 1.1% | −0.3 | $618K |
| Reaches $5,500 | 0.9% | −0.8 | $356K |
| Reaches $6,000 | 0.8% | −0.7 | $350K |
| Reaches $6,500 | 0.9% | −0.2 | $259K |
| Reaches $7,000 | 0.8% | −0.4 | $234K |
| Reaches $7,500 | 0.5% | −0.7 | $274K |
| Reaches $8,000 | 0.5% | −0.4 | $344K |
| Reaches $10,000 | 0.4% | +0.1 | $941K |
Ethereum: chance of falling to each price in 2026
Polymarket, “What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?”: $20.2M traded in total. See the market
| Price level | Chance | 7-day change (points) | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falls to $1,750 | 61.5% | +40.0 | $1.1M |
| Falls to $1,500 | 26.5% | +15.0 | $3.5M |
| Falls to $1,250 | 11.0% | +4.5 | $1.0M |
| Falls to $1,000 | 3.7% | −0.6 | $2.5M |
| Falls to $800 | 3.0% | +0.3 | $1.8M |
| Falls to $700 | 1.3% | −0.8 | $20K |
| Falls to $500 | 0.9% | −0.4 | $116K |
How to read these odds
Each level is a separate contract that pays $1 if the price touches it before the year ends, so a 30¢ price reads as a 30% chance. “Reaches” and “falls to” are not opposites: Bitcoin can do both in the same year. The 7-day change is in percentage points. Shorter bets on the same coin, such as Kalshi’s 15-minute markets, are explained in Kalshi’s 15-minute Bitcoin markets.
Where crypto price markets trade
- Polymarket: the prices on this page. Not open to US residents. Polymarket fees
- Kalshi: CFTC-regulated crypto price contracts for US residents; its data terms do not allow us to show its prices. Kalshi review
Not betting or investment advice.
Frequently asked questions
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
On Polymarket right now, traders put Bitcoin reaching $90,000 at 6.5% and falling to $65,000 at 81.5% before the end of 2026. Every level is in the tables above, refreshed every 15 minutes. These are traders’ prices, not a forecast.
- What price will Ether hit in 2026?
On Polymarket right now, traders put Ether reaching $3,000 at 5.5% and falling to $1,750 at 61.5% before the end of 2026. Every level is in the tables above, refreshed every 15 minutes. These are traders’ prices, not a forecast.
- How do these markets resolve?
Each level is its own market. A “reaches” level resolves Yes if any one-minute Binance candle (BTC/USDT or ETH/USDT) has a high at or above it before 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026; a “falls to” level uses the candle lows. Price moves before a market was created don’t count.
- Why are some price levels missing?
A level that has already been hit resolves and drops off, and levels with little trading or a wide gap between buyers and sellers are left out so an untraded price never reads as a chance.
- Is this a price forecast?
No. It is what traders are paying for each outcome. Prices move with the market and with news, and a 20% chance means the level is missed four times in five.