Data · reference table
Fed rate odds: what prediction markets price for the next FOMC meetings
The chance of a rate cut, no change or a hike at each of the next Federal Reserve meetings, read from Polymarket prices and refreshed every 15 minutes. An outcome appears only where at least $10,000 has been traded and buyers and sellers are close on price.
Chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask on Polymarket’s public market data; untraded and stale outcomes are left out. Market prices are traders’ estimates, not forecasts, and change through the day. Last updated . Free to cite with a link to this page. Not legal advice.
Fed decision in December
Traders give “25 bps increase” at the December meeting an 86.5% chance. Polymarket, “Fed Decision in December?”: $33.9M traded; the market closes 9 December 2026. See the market
| Decision | Chance | 7-day change (points) | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.3% | −0.4 | $4.9M |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.4% | −0.3 | $5.7M |
| No change | 3.4% | −18.1 | $8.2M |
| 25 bps increase | 86.5% | +10.0 | $8.6M |
| 50+ bps increase | 8.5% | +8.0 | $6.4M |
Fed decision in January
Traders give “25 bps increase” at the January meeting a 57.5% chance. Polymarket, “Fed Decision in January?”: $3.4M traded; the market closes 27 January 2027. See the market
| Decision | Chance | 7-day change (points) | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.5% | −0.9 | $712K |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.7% | −3.0 | $608K |
| No change | 41.5% | −32.0 | $718K |
| 25 bps increase | 57.5% | +39.0 | $837K |
| 50+ bps increase | 1.4% | +0.6 | $502K |
Fed decision in March
Traders give “25 bps increase” at the March meeting a 56.5% chance. Polymarket, “Fed Decision in March?”: $240K traded; the market closes 17 March 2027. See the market
| Decision | Chance | 7-day change (points) | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ bps decrease | 1.1% | −0.7 | $30K |
| 25 bps decrease | 5.0% | −0.7 | $27K |
| No change | 37.0% | −17.0 | $48K |
| 25 bps increase | 56.5% | +21.5 | $106K |
| 50+ bps increase | 1.9% | +0.4 | $29K |
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Polymarket, “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?”: $55.9M traded in total. See the market
| Number of cuts in 2026 | Chance | 7-day change (points) | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 98.6% | +0.7 | $9.6M |
| 1 (25 bps) | 0.9% | −0.1 | $3.8M |
| 2 (50 bps) | 0.3% | −0.1 | $3.6M |
| 3 (75 bps) | 0.1% | −0.1 | $3.0M |
| 4 (100 bps) | 0.1% | −0.1 | $2.8M |
| 12+ (300+ bps) | 0.1% | +0.1 | $4.2M |
How to read these odds
Each outcome is a contract that pays $1 if the Fed’s decision matches it, so a price of 20¢ reads as a 20% chance. Polymarket settles on the change in the upper bound of the federal funds target range at that meeting, in basis points (25 bps is a quarter of a percentage point). The 7-day change is in percentage points: +5.0 means 15% became 20%. Meeting dates are on the Federal Reserve’s FOMC calendar.
The chances add up to a little over 100% because of the gap between buying and selling prices; why, in reading price as probability. Convert any chance to betting odds with the odds to probability converter.
Where Fed decisions trade
- Polymarket — the prices on this page. Its main site does not accept US residents, who are directed to the separate Polymarket US app. Polymarket review
- Kalshi — a CFTC-regulated exchange open to US residents, with a “Fed meeting” market series. Its data terms do not allow us to show its prices. Kalshi review
- CME FedWatch — not a market you trade on, but meeting probabilities derived from fed funds futures, the traditional benchmark.
Which prediction markets you can use depends on where you live: availability by state. Not betting or investment advice.
Frequently asked questions
- How many times will the Fed cut rates in 2026?
Polymarket traders put the chance of no cuts at all in 2026 at 98.6%. The chance of each number of cuts is in the table on this page, refreshed every 15 minutes.
- Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting?
Traders give “25 bps increase” at the December meeting an 86.5% chance. Every outcome is in the table at the top of this page, refreshed every 15 minutes. These are traders’ prices, not a forecast by the Federal Reserve.
- What are Fed rate cut odds?
The market’s price for each possible decision at a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, read as a probability. A “25 bps decrease” contract at 30¢ pays $1 if the Fed cuts by a quarter point, so traders put the chance at about 30%.
- How does Polymarket’s Fed decision market resolve?
On the change in the upper bound of the federal funds target range set at that meeting, compared with the level before it. A change that falls between the listed options is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
- How is this different from CME FedWatch?
CME’s FedWatch tool derives meeting probabilities from 30-day fed funds futures prices. This page shows prices on prediction market contracts that pay out on the decision itself. The two usually point the same way but can differ.
- Can you trade Fed rate decisions in the US?
Polymarket’s main site, whose prices are shown here, does not accept US residents; its help centre directs them to the separate Polymarket US app. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to US residents, lists a “Fed meeting” market series.