Data · reference table
US recession and inflation odds, from prediction markets
What prediction markets price for a US recession by the end of 2026, and for how high inflation gets this year. Prices come from Polymarket and refresh every 15 minutes; an outcome appears only where at least $10,000 has been traded and buyers and sellers are close on price.
Chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask on Polymarket’s public market data; untraded and stale outcomes are left out. Market prices are traders’ estimates, not forecasts. Last updated . Free to cite with a link to this page. Not legal advice.
US recession by the end of 2026?
Polymarket, “US recession by end of 2026?”: $2.5M traded in total. See the market
| Outcome | Chance | 7-day change (points) | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | 2.3% | −1.5 | $2.5M |
How high will US inflation get in 2026?
Polymarket, “How high will inflation get in 2026?”: $1.6M traded in total. See the market
| 12-month CPI inflation | Chance | 7-day change (points) | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.5% | 9.5% | −1.0 | $281K |
| Above 5% | 4.5% | — | $351K |
| Above 6% | 0.9% | −0.8 | $76K |
| Above 8% | 1.8% | −0.5 | $43K |
| Above 10% | 1.4% | −0.4 | $61K |
How these markets resolve
The recession market resolves Yes on two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth in the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates, advance estimates included, or on an NBER announcement that a recession occurred, by the time the Q4 2026 advance estimate comes out. Each inflation level resolves on the 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index for any month of 2026, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports it.
A price of 10¢ reads as a 10% chance. What markets expect from interest rates is on the Fed rate odds page; why prices are read as probabilities is in reading price as probability. Not investment advice.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?
Polymarket traders put the chance of a US recession by the end of 2026 at 2.3%, from prices refreshed every 15 minutes. These are traders’ prices, not an economic forecast.
- What counts as a recession in this market?
Either two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (advance estimates count), or an NBER announcement that a recession occurred in 2025 or 2026, made by the time the Q4 2026 advance estimate is released.
- How does the inflation market resolve?
Each level is its own market. It resolves Yes if the Consumer Price Index rose by more than that percentage over the 12 months ending in any month of 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly reports.
- What do markets expect from the Fed?
See our Fed rate odds page, which shows what prediction markets price for each of the next three FOMC meetings.